Pricing Nation Econometrics, a division of Pricing Nation (www.PricingNation.com), predicts that the average home price in the Boston Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) will decrease by 0.225 percent twelve months from now. Boston residents can be pleased that housing price declines continue to bottom out in August 2013. Pricing Nation Econometrics has also just released their heat map (see attached) predicting home price changes for each zip code in the Boston MSA one year from now. The zip codes with the largest predicted improvement in home prices areMilton Mills, NH (03852) with a 5.10 percent increase followed by Melrose, MA (02176) with a 1.95 percent increase. The zip code with the largest predicted decrease in home prices is East Hampstead, NH (03826) with a 8.21 percent decrease followed by Newton Upper Falls, MA (02464) with a 6.98 percent decrease.Pricing Nation will provide its monthly projections, initially just for Boston and its related zip codes, at 7:00 a.m. of the last Tuesday of each month.
Pricing Nation has developed an integrated suite of regression based models that predict housing price changes at the MSA level, zip level and house level. These models have been built using data over the last ten years which is a robust training period as there has been both an upswing and downswing in prices during that time. The model results for the Boston MSA are statistically highly significant. Of particular importance is that the Pricing Nation model, when used for historical periods, would have predicted the severe downturn in Boston MSA housing prices in August, 2006, 12 months before it actually occurred in August, 2007 (downturn data reported by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices) and 16 months before the U.S. officially went into a recession according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a nonprofit group entrusted by the government with determining when recessions begin and end.
Pricing Nation believes it is important to predict home price changes. From the Great Depression through 2008, homeowners generally made money investing in their homes if they owned them for a considerable amount of time. It became common ‘wisdom’ that home prices across the country would always go up. With the advent of the Credit and Housing Crisis, we now know that this common ‘wisdom’ was flawed. Housing prices will go up and down in the future based primarily on local demand and supply factors combined with a number of macroeconomic variables. These factors are the drivers in the Pricing Nation predictive models.